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a) In the beginning of the pandemic I as a lecturer in Operations Management was annoyed as major news sources reported figures of number of infected in Covid-19 showing both a daily and a 5-days Moving average figure. During this time Testing capacity was known to be low, and especially so during weekends. Argue and explain a for a better choice of calculating and reporting the Moving average.
2. b) We know that the underlying logic in pandemics according to most models follow an exponential pattern (example, one infected individual transfer the virus to two, who in turn infects two new each). If we would like to forecast number of new infected (for example to prepare planning at the local hospital) which and why are the usage of exponential smoothening including trend better than the above mentioned 5-day-smoothining average?
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