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42. Explain The President of Greene and Rich College and the Dean of the School of Business Administration wish to forecast the enrollments for the Fall Semester. The enrollment is measured in Full Time Equivalents (FTE’s) which represents the number of full-time students. This is the equivalent to the existing mixture of full-time and part-time students. Data representing the Fall enrollment for the past ten years is given below: Unear Trend Time (t) Enrollment Naive 3 Period 6 Period Moving Moving Average Average 1 1984 N/A N/A N/A 2 2119 N/A NA 3 2188 N/A NA 4 2213 N/A 5 2268 N/A 6 2313 NA 7 2424 8 2453 9 2538 10 2629 11 42.1 Make a naive forecast for Year 11; 42.2 Make a 3 year moving average forecast for Year 11; [2] 42.3 Make a 6 year moving average forecast for Year 11; 12) 42.4 Based on your calculations above, which forecast would you use for planning proposes for Year 11 and why? Page 9 42.5 Below is a scatterplot of the FTE enrollments: les 2650 2500 2550 2500 2450 2400 2150 2100 2050 2000 30 42.5 Describe any trend you observe in the plotted data. [2] 42.6 If enrollment = a + bt=1954.9 +65.2t, what would be your forecast for Year 11; [2] 42.7 Based on all four of your calculations above, which forecast would you use for planning proposes for Year 11 and why? [2]