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Sarah King, president of King Electronics, Inc., has two design options for her new line of high-resolution cathode-ray tubes (CRT) for CAD workstations. The life cycle sales forecast for the CRT is 100,000 units. Design option A has a 0.80 probability of yielding 55 good CRTS per 100 and a 0.20 probability of yielding 62 good CRTs per 100. This design will cost $930,000 Design option B has a 0.70 probability of yielding 62 good units per 100 and a 0.30 probability of yielding 55 good units per 100. This design will cost $1,080,000. Good or bad, each CRT will cost $70. Each good CRT will sell for $140. Bad CRTs are destroyed and have no salvage value. We ignore any disposal costs in this problem. Suppose that Sarah King can increase yields from 55,000 to 62,000 by applying an expensive phosphorus to the screen at an added cost of $350,000. Prepare the modified decision tree. What are the payoffs, and which branch has the greatest EMV? Draw a decision tree for this problem. Choose the correct decision tree below. OA. OB. Improve 7 per 100 250,000 Initial Yield 55 (0.80) Improve 7 per 100 -400,000 Initial Yield 55 Use Design B 85,000 (0.80) – 230,000 Do not improve Do not improve -80,000 Design A (0.20) Yield 62 375.000 Design A (0.20) Yield 62 750,000 Yield 62 (0.70) -650,000 Yield 62 (0.70) -600,000 Design B Design B Improve 7 per 100 -50,000 (0.30) (0.30) Improve 7 per 100 250,000 Use Design A -65.000 OC. OD. Do not improve 400,000 Improve 7 per 100 -400,000 a Initial Yield 55 (0.80) Initial Yield 55 (0.80) – 230.000 – 230,000 Improve 7 per 100 Do not improve Design B (0.20) Yield 62 750,000 Design A (0.20) Yield 62 -750,000 Yield 62 (0.70) 600.000 Design A -600,000 Yield 62 (0.70) Design B Do not improve 250,000 Improve 7 per 100 -250,000 (0.30) (0.30) Initial Yield 55 Initial Yield 55 – 380,000 – 380,000 Improve 7 per 100 Do not improve The expected payoff from Design A is $(Enter your response rounded to the nearest dollar.) The expected payoff from Design B is $(Enter your response rounded to the nearest dollar.)
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