Financial Engineering 5
Student Information
You must enter the information in the “yellow” fields below before starting the assignment. | Fall 2020 | expected semi-annual rate | 0.01313 | Futures | Original | Modified | |||||||||||||||||||
Name | annual risk free rate | 0.02626 | Settlement | Date | Sorghum | Rice | Oats | Soybeans | Corn | Alfalfa | Wheat | Date | Sorghum | Rice | Oats | Soybeans | Corn | Alfalfa | Wheat | ||||||
10 digit student ID # | 1220885757 | notional amount | 14420000 | Price | 4/30/06 | 26.2 | 60.1 | 73.75 | 147.6519 | $ 65.00 | 74.1 | 83.9916 | 7/31/14 | 41.28 | 94.7 | 116.21 | 232.66 | 102.42 | 116.76 | 132.35 | |||||
Date | 4.92 | 5/31/06 | 28.6 | 59.8 | 75 | 153.9846 | $ 68.21 | 76 | 83.6583 | 8/31/14 | 45.07 | 94.23 | 118.18 | 242.63 | 107.49 | 119.75 | 131.82 | ||||||||
Class | 0.02626 | 5.02 | 1.02 | 6/30/06 | 30.6 | 58.2 | 79.375 | 159.6507 | $ 70.71 | 77 | 84.6582 | 9/30/14 | 48.22 | 91.71 | 125.07 | 251.56 | 111.42 | 121.33 | 133.4 | ||||||
By downloading this assignment you agree to not share this exam with anyone. You also agree to completing this assignment without the assistance or of anyone unless you have received written approval from the instructor. You agree to not collaborate with anyone with this assignment You agree to not use another student’s assignment or materials to aid you with this assignment You understand that not following these rules, or any other rules identified in the ASU Academic Integrity Policy will result in a zero grade for this assignment a violation report to the Dean’s office, and likely suspension from ASU. Please teach each other the Excel functions and financial engineering functions. However, do not provide answers or assist others with their answers. Engineers must learn how to solve problems! This assignment is the property of Daniel R. McCarville and Arizona State University. It is copyright protected. | 0.027573 | 5.17 | 1.03 | 7/31/06 | 32.1 | 56.4 | 80 | 163.6503 | $ 72.50 | 77.7 | 86.3247 | 10/31/14 | 50.58 | 88.87 | 126.06 | 257.86 | 114.24 | 122.43 | 136.02 | ||||||
0.02895165 | 5.17 | 1 | 8/31/06 | 32.4 | 57.5 | 84.375 | 166.65 | $ 72.50 | 81.9 | 85.6581 | 11/30/14 | 51.05 | 90.6 | 132.95 | 262.59 | 114.24 | 129.05 | 134.97 | |||||||
Instructions: | 0.0303992325 | 5.01 | 0.97 | 9/30/06 | 33.3 | 56.2 | 81.875 | 172.9827 | $ 75.36 | 87.9 | 86.3247 | 12/31/14 | 52.47 | 88.55 | 129.01 | 272.57 | 118.74 | 138.5 | 136.02 | ||||||
1. You must enter the information requested above. | 0.0319191941 | 4.91 | 0.98 | 10/31/06 | 33.2 | 56.9 | 77.5 | 164.3169 | $ 68.21 | 85.1 | 83.325 | 1/31/15 | 52.31 | 89.66 | 122.12 | 258.91 | 107.49 | 134.09 | 131.3 | ||||||
2. Include your entire 10 (ten) digit student ID number. | 0.0335151538 | 4.76 | 0.97 | 11/30/06 | 28.2 | 55.9 | 67.5 | 150.9849 | $ 58.57 | 83.3 | 77.3256 | 2/28/15 | 44.43 | 88.08 | 106.36 | 237.91 | 92.29 | 131.26 | 121.84 | ||||||
3. Do not change the questions as I have typed them. | 0.0351909115 | 4.81 | 1.01 | 12/31/06 | 27.3 | 57.2 | 58.125 | 148.3185 | $ 54.29 | 84.7 | 79.992 | 3/31/15 | 43.02 | 90.13 | 91.59 | 233.71 | 85.54 | 133.46 | 126.04 | ||||||
4. Fill in all yellow boxes with the requested information and/or answer. | 0.0369504571 | 4.71 | 0.98 | 1/31/07 | 27.7 | 55.3 | 59.375 | 152.9847 | $ 57.50 | 86 | 80.9919 | 4/30/15 | 43.65 | 87.14 | 93.56 | 241.06 | 90.6 | 135.51 | 127.62 | ||||||
5. To show your cash flow drawings, you must copy the drawings onto the Question Worksheet. | 0.03879798 | 4.71 | 1 | 2/28/07 | 30.1 | 55.7 | 67.5 | 148.3185 | $ 62.14 | 89.2 | 89.3244 | 5/31/15 | 47.43 | 87.77 | 106.36 | 233.71 | 97.92 | 140.55 | 140.75 | ||||||
6. Please show your Excel work in the same worksheet as the Question. | 0.040737879 | 3/31/07 | 32.7 | 57.2 | 76.25 | 151.6515 | $ 66.43 | 88 | 93.9906 | 6/30/15 | 51.53 | 90.13 | 120.15 | 238.96 | 104.67 | 138.66 | 148.1 | ||||||||
7. Data Analysis TookPak results such as Covariance Matrices or Regression Analysis can be inserted in a new worksheet. | Bushels | 20000 | 4/30/07 | 35.4 | 56.9 | 71.25 | 159.3174 | $ 70.36 | 89.7 | 95.6571 | 7/31/15 | 55.78 | 89.66 | 112.27 | 251.04 | 110.86 | 141.34 | 150.73 | |||||||
8. I do give some partial credit where enough detail is presented. | Initial Account % | 0.05 | 5/31/07 | 33.9 | 58.6 | 75.625 | 155.9844 | $ 70.71 | 91 | 94.6572 | 8/31/15 | 53.42 | 92.34 | 119.16 | 245.78 | 111.42 | 143.39 | 149.15 | |||||||
Margin Maintenance | 0.75 | 6/30/07 | 34.7 | 57.2 | 80 | 148.6518 | $ 70.00 | 92.9 | 94.3239 | 9/30/15 | 54.68 | 90.13 | 126.06 | 234.23 | 110.3 | 146.38 | 148.63 | ||||||||
Question | Points | Actual | 7/31/07 | 32.9 | 56.6 | 77.5 | 146.3187 | $ 70.00 | 95 | 95.6571 | 10/31/15 | 51.84 | 89.18 | 122.12 | 230.55 | 110.3 | 149.69 | 150.73 | |||||||
1a | 5 | 0 | MCCA | 8/31/07 | 30.4 | 56.8 | 80 | 140.6526 | $ 67.50 | 105 | 95.3238 | 11/30/15 | 47.9 | 89.5 | 126.06 | 221.63 | 106.36 | 165.45 | 150.2 | ||||||
1b | 5 | 0 | Option Type | Stock Price | IV | Strike Price | Exp | Vol | Open Int | 9/30/07 | 32.1 | 54 | 80 | 144.3189 | $ 65.00 | 109 | 99.3234 | 12/31/15 | 50.58 | 85.09 | 126.06 | 227.4 | 102.42 | 171.75 | 156.5 |
2a | 5 | 0 | Call | 29.59 | 0.3384 | 28 | May, 2015 | 3051 | 40421 | 10/31/07 | 36.2 | 51.4 | 86.25 | 148.6518 | $ 62.86 | 104 | 91.3242 | 1/31/16 | 57.04 | 80.99 | 135.9 | 234.23 | 99.04 | 163.87 | 143.9 |
2b | 5 | 0 | Annual interest rate = | 0.02626 | Trading days per year = | 252 | 11/30/07 | 37.2 | 53.2 | 82.5 | 159.6507 | $ 66.79 | 104 | 87.6579 | 2/29/16 | 58.62 | 83.83 | 130 | 251.56 | 105.23 | 163.87 | 138.12 | |||
3a | 2 | 0 | 12/31/07 | 34.9 | 50.1 | 78.125 | 161.6505 | $ 67.86 | 105 | 91.3242 | 3/31/16 | 54.99 | 78.94 | 123.1 | 254.71 | 106.92 | 165.45 | 143.9 | |||||||
3b | 2 | 0 | ABCD | 1/31/08 | 34.4 | 46.7 | 86.875 | 150.9849 | $ 68.21 | 108 | 94.9905 | 4/30/16 | 54.2 | 73.59 | 136.89 | 237.91 | 107.49 | 170.18 | 149.68 | ||||||
3c | 2 | 0 | Option Type | Stock Price | IV | Strike Price | Exp | Vol | Open Int | 2/29/08 | 33 | 43.9 | 102.5 | 136.3197 | $ 65.71 | 106 | 95.6571 | 5/31/16 | 52 | 69.17 | 161.51 | 214.8 | 103.55 | 167.02 | 150.73 |
3d | 2 | 0 | 38.5 | 0.39038 | 37 | May, 2015 | 4892 | 55057 | 3/31/08 | 33 | 42.5 | 111.875 | 138.6528 | $ 66.07 | 104 | 95.6571 | 6/30/16 | 52 | 66.97 | 176.28 | 218.48 | 104.11 | 163.87 | 150.73 | |
3e | 2 | 0 | Annual interest rate | 0.028886 | Trading days per year | 252 | 4/30/08 | 32.5 | 42.9 | 120 | 139.986 | $ 70.71 | 105 | 95.9904 | 7/31/16 | 51.21 | 67.6 | 189.08 | 220.58 | 111.42 | 165.45 | 151.25 | |||
Total | 30 | 0 | 5/31/08 | 33.4 | 43 | 120.625 | 140.6526 | $ 70.36 | 101 | 95.6571 | 8/31/16 | 52.63 | 67.76 | 190.07 | 221.63 | 110.86 | 159.15 | 150.73 | |||||||
6/30/08 | 32.6 | 41.6 | 119.375 | 140.6526 | $ 68.93 | 100 | 94.3239 | 9/30/16 | 51.37 | 65.55 | 188.1 | 221.63 | 108.61 | 157.57 | 148.63 | ||||||||||
Comments: | 7/31/08 | 32.3 | 39.9 | 124.375 | 145.9854 | $ 69.29 | 99.6 | 95.6571 | 10/31/16 | 50.9 | 62.87 | 195.98 | 230.03 | 109.17 | 156.94 | 150.73 | |||||||||
8/31/08 | 31.3 | 39.4 | 124.375 | 148.9851 | $ 68.21 | 103 | 94.3239 | 11/30/16 | 49.32 | 62.08 | 195.98 | 234.76 | 107.49 | 162.3 | 148.63 | ||||||||||
9/30/08 | 31.7 | 39.8 | 124.375 | 154.6512 | $ 68.93 | 108 | 93.6573 | 12/31/16 | 49.95 | 62.71 | 195.98 | 243.68 | 108.61 | 170.18 | 147.58 | ||||||||||
10/31/08 | 38.3 | 39.2 | 121.875 | 162.6504 | $ 70.36 | 101 | 97.3236 | 1/31/17 | 60.35 | 61.77 | 192.04 | 256.29 | 110.86 | 159.15 | 153.35 | ||||||||||
11/30/08 | 40.6 | 38.1 | 105.625 | 178.3155 | $ 76.07 | 100 | 106.9893 | 2/28/17 | 63.97 | 60.03 | 166.43 | 280.97 | 119.87 | 157.57 | 168.58 | ||||||||||
12/31/08 | 42.1 | 39.4 | 104.375 | 184.3149 | $ 85.00 | 101 | 120.9879 | 3/31/17 | 66.34 | 62.08 | 164.46 | 290.42 | 133.93 | 159.15 | 190.64 | ||||||||||
1/31/09 | 43 | 40.9 | 112.5 | 179.6487 | $ 88.21 | 101 | 140.3193 | 4/30/17 | 67.76 | 64.45 | 177.27 | 283.07 | 139 | 159.15 | 221.1 | ||||||||||
2/28/09 | 43.3 | 40.3 | 112.5 | 173.316 | $ 83.57 | 102 | 145.9854 | 5/31/17 | 68.23 | 63.5 | 177.27 | 273.09 | 131.68 | 160.72 | 230.03 | ||||||||||
3/31/09 | 44 | 42.4 | 119.375 | 181.9818 | $ 81.43 | 101 | 141.6525 | 6/30/17 | 69.33 | 66.81 | 188.1 | 286.75 | 128.31 | 159.15 | 223.2 | ||||||||||
4/30/09 | 43.3 | 44.6 | 121.875 | 181.9818 | $ 82.86 | 98 | 135.3198 | 7/31/17 | 68.23 | 70.28 | 192.04 | 286.75 | 130.56 | 154.42 | 213.22 | ||||||||||
5/31/09 | 41.2 | 46.6 | 127.5 | 183.6483 | $ 83.21 | 98.5 | 129.6537 | 8/31/17 | 64.92 | 73.43 | 200.9 | 289.37 | 131.12 | 155.21 | 204.3 | ||||||||||
6/30/09 | 41.4 | 42.4 | 131.875 | 184.9815 | $ 83.57 | 96.2 | 123.321 | 9/30/17 | 65.23 | 66.81 | 207.8 | 291.48 | 131.68 | 151.58 | 194.32 | ||||||||||
7/31/09 | 39.4 | 43.1 | 130 | 186.3147 | $ 83.21 | 96.7 | 118.3215 | 10/31/17 | 62.08 | 67.91 | 204.84 | 293.58 | 131.12 | 152.37 | 186.44 | ||||||||||
8/31/09 | 39.6 | 46.1 | 123.75 | 193.9806 | $ 83.57 | 96.2 | 112.3221 | 11/30/17 | 62.4 | 72.64 | 194.99 | 305.66 | 131.68 | 151.58 | 176.99 | ||||||||||
9/30/09 | 39.5 | 48.4 | 121.875 | 202.3131 | $ 85.00 | 101 | 110.9889 | 12/31/17 | 62.24 | 76.26 | 192.04 | 318.78 | 133.93 | 159.15 | 174.89 | ||||||||||
10/31/09 | 36.1 | 54.3 | 114.375 | 202.9797 | $ 83.57 | 101 | 102.6564 | 1/31/18 | 56.88 | 85.56 | 180.22 | 319.84 | 131.68 | 159.15 | 161.76 | ||||||||||
11/30/09 | 36.3 | 53.1 | 91.25 | 193.9806 | $ 77.50 | 93.8 | 98.3235 | 2/28/18 | 57.2 | 83.67 | 143.78 | 305.66 | 122.12 | 147.8 | 154.93 | ||||||||||
12/31/09 | 39.3 | 59.3 | 86.875 | 189.3144 | $ 76.79 | 91.9 | 111.6555 | 3/31/18 | 61.93 | 93.44 | 136.89 | 298.3 | 120.99 | 144.81 | 175.94 | ||||||||||
1/31/10 | 39.7 | 65.6 | 86.875 | 201.9798 | $ 78.57 | 90.1 | 112.9887 | 4/30/18 | 62.56 | 103.37 | 136.89 | 318.26 | 123.81 | 141.97 | 178.04 | ||||||||||
2/28/10 | 39.8 | 71.5 | 90 | 219.978 | $ 75.71 | 89.1 | 114.6552 | 5/31/18 | 62.71 | 112.66 | 141.81 | 346.62 | 119.3 | 140.39 | 180.66 | ||||||||||
3/31/10 | 41.3 | 78 | 80.625 | 234.9765 | $ 78.57 | 86.8 | 120.3213 | 6/30/18 | 65.08 | 122.9 | 127.04 | 370.25 | 123.81 | 136.77 | 189.59 | ||||||||||
4/30/10 | 42 | 85.5 | 98.75 | 238.9761 | $ 82.50 | 87 | 122.6544 | 7/31/18 | 66.18 | 134.72 | 155.6 | 376.55 | 130 | 137.09 | 193.27 | ||||||||||
5/31/10 | 43.6 | 85.7 | 92.5 | 244.9755 | $ 85.36 | 84.8 | 122.6544 | 8/31/18 | 68.7 | 135.04 | 145.75 | 386.01 | 134.5 | 133.62 | 193.27 | ||||||||||
6/30/10 | 47.6 | 82.3 | 98.75 | 275.9724 | $ 93.21 | 85.1 | 125.6541 | 9/30/18 | 75 | 129.68 | 155.6 | 434.85 | 146.88 | 134.09 | 197.99 | ||||||||||
7/31/10 | 48.4 | 84.5 | 100 | 309.3024 | $ 98.21 | 86.2 | 127.6539 | 10/31/18 | 76.26 | 133.15 | 157.57 | 487.37 | 154.76 | 135.83 | 201.14 | ||||||||||
8/31/10 | 50.9 | 86.5 | 101.875 | 320.6346 | $ 103.21 | 92.7 | 129.3204 | 11/30/18 | 80.2 | 136.3 | 160.52 | 505.22 | 162.63 | 146.07 | 203.77 | ||||||||||
9/30/10 | 48.2 | 88.2 | 106.25 | 318.6348 | $ 102.50 | 108 | 127.3206 | 12/31/18 | 75.95 | 138.98 | 167.42 | 502.07 | 161.51 | 170.18 | 200.62 | ||||||||||
10/31/10 | 45.8 | 93 | 100.625 | 302.6364 | $ 99.64 | 102 | 118.3215 | 1/31/19 | 72.17 | 146.54 | 158.55 | 476.86 | 157.01 | 160.72 | 186.44 | ||||||||||
11/30/10 | 42.7 | 93.7 | 85 | 281.9718 | $ 89.64 | 98.7 | 112.3221 | 2/28/19 | 67.28 | 147.64 | 133.93 | 444.3 | 141.25 | 155.52 | 176.99 | ||||||||||
12/31/10 | 40.1 | 89.3 | 82.5 | 227.6439 | $ 83.57 | 99.3 | 108.9891 | 3/31/19 | 63.19 | 140.71 | 130 | 358.7 | 131.68 | 156.47 | 171.73 | ||||||||||
1/31/11 | 35.7 | 84.6 | 88.75 | 194.3139 | $ 78.57 | 97.5 | 111.9888 | 4/30/19 | 56.25 | 133.3 | 139.84 | 306.18 | 123.81 | 153.63 | 176.46 | ||||||||||
2/28/11 | 31.7 | 75.9 | 90.625 | 185.3148 | $ 76.43 | 100 | 114.3219 | 5/31/19 | 49.95 | 119.6 | 142.8 | 292 | 120.43 | 157.57 | 180.14 | ||||||||||
3/31/11 | 30.6 | 73.8 | 94.375 | 178.6488 | $ 73.21 | 95.2 | 115.3218 | 6/30/19 | 48.22 | 116.29 | 148.71 | 281.5 | 115.36 | 150.01 | 181.71 | ||||||||||
4/30/11 | 29.9 | 73.7 | 100 | 181.6485 | $ 72.86 | 92.1 | 113.322 | 7/31/19 | 47.11 | 116.13 | 157.57 | 286.22 | 114.8 | 145.12 | 178.56 | ||||||||||
5/31/11 | 29.5 | 73.9 | 102.5 | 185.6481 | $ 75.71 | 94.5 | 114.3219 | 8/31/19 | 46.48 | 116.44 | 161.51 | 292.53 | 119.3 | 148.9 | 180.14 | ||||||||||
6/30/11 | 29.6 | 69 | 104.375 | 180.6486 | $ 69.64 | 94 | 111.9888 | 9/30/19 | 46.64 | 108.72 | 164.46 | 284.65 | 109.74 | 148.12 | 176.46 | ||||||||||
7/31/11 | 30.4 | 69.7 | 108.125 | 198.3135 | $ 72.14 | 98.6 | 113.9886 | 10/31/19 | 47.9 | 109.83 | 170.37 | 312.48 | 113.68 | 155.36 | 179.61 | ||||||||||
8/31/11 | 29.6 | 69.8 | 103.125 | 200.9799 | $ 71.43 | 105 | 111.6555 | 11/30/19 | 46.64 | 109.98 | 162.49 | 316.68 | 112.55 | 165.45 | 175.94 | ||||||||||
9/30/11 | 30.5 | 69.8 | 102.5 | 206.9793 | $ 70.71 | 114 | 110.3223 | 12/31/19 | 48.06 | 109.98 | 161.51 | 326.14 | 111.42 | 179.63 | 173.83 | ||||||||||
10/31/11 | 37.7 | 69.6 | 109.375 | 219.3114 | $ 72.50 | 106 | 107.6559 | 1/31/20 | 59.4 | 109.67 | 172.34 | 345.57 | 114.24 | 167.02 | 169.63 | ||||||||||
11/30/11 | 39.4 | 68.2 | 99.375 | 221.6445 | $ 75.36 | 105 | 106.656 | 2/29/20 | 62.08 | 107.46 | 156.59 | 349.25 | 118.74 | 165.45 | 168.06 | ||||||||||
12/31/11 | 36.9 | 65.9 | 93.125 | 204.9795 | $ 69.64 | 108 | 107.9892 | 3/31/20 | 58.14 | 103.84 | 146.74 | 322.99 | 109.74 | 170.18 | 170.16 | ||||||||||
1/31/12 | 34.1 | 67.7 | 96.25 | 192.3141 | $ 67.86 | 106 | 111.9888 | 4/30/20 | 53.73 | 106.67 | 151.66 | 303.03 | 106.92 | 167.02 | 176.46 | ||||||||||
2/29/12 | 29.9 | 70.2 | 99.375 | 188.9811 | $ 65.00 | 105 | 114.3219 | 5/31/20 | 47.11 | 110.61 | 156.59 | 297.78 | 102.42 | 165.45 | 180.14 | ||||||||||
3/31/12 | 28.2 | 75.6 | 102.5 | 187.3146 | $ 63.21 | 98.3 | 114.9885 | 6/30/20 | 44.43 | 119.12 | 161.51 | 295.15 | 99.61 | 154.89 | 181.19 | ||||||||||
4/30/12 | 29.1 | 75.4 | 108.125 | 192.6474 | $ 68.57 | 96.9 | 117.6549 | 7/31/20 | 45.85 | 118.81 | 170.37 | 303.55 | 108.05 | 152.69 | 185.39 |
Question 1
You wish to hedge against interest rate changes so you enter into a swap | |||
contract with another party for the next ten years based on the term | |||
structure shown to the right, and the notional amount shown below. | Term Structure | ||
Year | Rate | ||
Notional amount | 14420000 | 1 | 2.6260% |
2 | 2.7573% | ||
3 | 2.8952% | ||
a) What is the value of the floating rate portion of the swap? | Vfloat = | 4 | 3.0399% |
Points | 5 | 5 | 3.1919% |
Grade | 6 | 3.3515% | |
7 | 3.5191% | ||
b) Determine the fixed rate for the contract such that the swap has a | r = | 8 | 3.6950% |
value of zero at the signing of the contract. | 9 | 3.8798% | |
Points | 5 | 10 | 4.0738% |
Grade |
Question 2
A buyer buys four futures contracts for soybeans per the quantity and | Buyer | Seller | ||||||
initial price shown below. A seller sells the contracts for the same | Margin | Account | Settlement | Margin | Account | |||
quantity and price. | Day | Deposits | Call | Balance | Price | Deposits | Call | Balance |
Initial Price | $ 4.92 | 1 | 4.92 | |||||
# Bushels | 20,000 | |||||||
Initial Account % | 5.00% | |||||||
Margin Maintenance % | 75% | 2 | 5.02 | |||||
3 | 5.17 | |||||||
a) Based on the daily settlment prices shown in the table to the right, | ||||||||
complete the yellow portions of the table identifying where | ||||||||
appropriate the Deposits, Margin Calls, and Account Ballances for | 4 | 5.17 | ||||||
both the Buyer and the Seller. | ||||||||
Note, not all of the yellow cells will require a value. | ||||||||
Points | 5 | 5 | 5.01 | |||||
Grade | ||||||||
b) If the contract is closed at the close of the 10th day, calculate the | 6 | 4.91 | ||||||
Total Gain or Loss for both the Buyer and the Seller. Fill in the yellow | ||||||||
cells provided at the bottom of the table to the right. | ||||||||
Points | 5 | 7 | 4.76 | |||||
Grade | ||||||||
Note, you do not need to do all of this with Excel formulas. | 8 | 4.81 | ||||||
Calculators are fine, or a combination of both. It is just a step by step | ||||||||
process! | ||||||||
9 | 4.71 | |||||||
Note: How many bushels are in a contract? | ||||||||
10 | 4.71 | |||||||
Deposits | ||||||||
Final Balance | ||||||||
Total (Gain or Loss) |
Question 3
A farmer has an uncertain price for her 20,000 tons of sorghum, but there | Feed Grain Commodities | |||||||||||||||
is not a future or option available to perform a perfet hedge. So, she | Date | Sorghum | A | B | C | D | E | F | ||||||||
chooses to base her hedge on one of six other future grain commodities, | Jul-14 | 41.28 | 94.70 | 232.66 | 116.21 | 132.35 | 116.76 | 102.42 | ||||||||
A, B, C, D, E, and F whose historical data are shown to the far right. | Aug-14 | 45.07 | 94.23 | 242.63 | 118.18 | 131.82 | 119.75 | 107.49 | ||||||||
All prices shown to the right are $ per ton. | Sep-14 | 48.22 | 91.71 | 251.56 | 125.07 | 133.40 | 121.33 | 111.42 | ||||||||
Today’s date is | Jul-20 | Oct-14 | 50.58 | 88.87 | 257.86 | 126.06 | 136.02 | 122.43 | 114.24 | |||||||
The current prices are: | Current Price | Nov-14 | 51.05 | 90.60 | 262.59 | 132.95 | 134.97 | 129.05 | 114.24 | |||||||
Sorghum | 45.85 | Dec-14 | 52.47 | 88.55 | 272.57 | 129.01 | 136.02 | 138.50 | 118.74 | |||||||
A | 118.81 | Jan-15 | 52.31 | 89.66 | 258.91 | 122.12 | 131.30 | 134.09 | 107.49 | |||||||
B | 303.55 | Feb-15 | 44.43 | 88.08 | 237.91 | 106.36 | 121.84 | 131.26 | 92.29 | |||||||
C | 170.37 | Mar-15 | 43.02 | 90.13 | 233.71 | 91.59 | 126.04 | 133.46 | 85.54 | |||||||
D | 185.39 | Apr-15 | 43.65 | 87.14 | 241.06 | 93.56 | 127.62 | 135.51 | 90.60 | |||||||
E | 152.69 | May-15 | 47.43 | 87.77 | 233.71 | 106.36 | 140.75 | 140.55 | 97.92 | |||||||
Complete parts a through e below: | F | 108.05 | Jun-15 | 51.53 | 90.13 | 238.96 | 120.15 | 148.10 | 138.66 | 104.67 | ||||||
Jul-15 | 55.78 | 89.66 | 251.04 | 112.27 | 150.73 | 141.34 | 110.86 | |||||||||
a) In the yellow box area provided, create summary table and correlation | Summary | Sorghum | A | B | C | D | E | F | Aug-15 | 53.42 | 92.34 | 245.78 | 119.16 | 149.15 | 143.39 | 111.42 |
table feed grain commodities; fill in the yellow cells provided. | Average | Sep-15 | 54.68 | 90.13 | 234.23 | 126.06 | 148.63 | 146.38 | 110.30 | |||||||
Points | 2 | Variance | Oct-15 | 51.84 | 89.18 | 230.55 | 122.12 | 150.73 | 149.69 | 110.30 | ||||||
Grade | StDev | Nov-15 | 47.90 | 89.50 | 221.63 | 126.06 | 150.20 | 165.45 | 106.36 | |||||||
Dec-15 | 50.58 | 85.09 | 227.40 | 126.06 | 156.50 | 171.75 | 102.42 | |||||||||
Correlation | Sorghum | A | B | C | D | E | F | Jan-16 | 57.04 | 80.99 | 234.23 | 135.90 | 143.90 | 163.87 | 99.04 | |
Sorghum | Feb-16 | 58.62 | 83.83 | 251.56 | 130.00 | 138.12 | 163.87 | 105.23 | ||||||||
A | Mar-16 | 54.99 | 78.94 | 254.71 | 123.10 | 143.90 | 165.45 | 106.92 | ||||||||
B | Apr-16 | 54.20 | 73.59 | 237.91 | 136.89 | 149.68 | 170.18 | 107.49 | ||||||||
C | May-16 | 52.00 | 69.17 | 214.80 | 161.51 | 150.73 | 167.02 | 103.55 | ||||||||
D | Jun-16 | 52.00 | 66.97 | 218.48 | 176.28 | 150.73 | 163.87 | 104.11 | ||||||||
E | Jul-16 | 51.21 | 67.60 | 220.58 | 189.08 | 151.25 | 165.45 | 111.42 | ||||||||
F | Aug-16 | 52.63 | 67.76 | 221.63 | 190.07 | 150.73 | 159.15 | 110.86 | ||||||||
Sep-16 | 51.37 | 65.55 | 221.63 | 188.10 | 148.63 | 157.57 | 108.61 | |||||||||
b) Which of the other commodities, A, B, C, D, E, or F would you choose | Recommended | Oct-16 | 50.90 | 62.87 | 230.03 | 195.98 | 150.73 | 156.94 | 109.17 | |||||||
recommend to the farmer for hedging his Sorghum crop? | commodity is: | Nov-16 | 49.32 | 62.08 | 234.76 | 195.98 | 148.63 | 162.30 | 107.49 | |||||||
Points | 2 | Dec-16 | 49.95 | 62.71 | 243.68 | 195.98 | 147.58 | 170.18 | 108.61 | |||||||
Grade | Jan-17 | 60.35 | 61.77 | 256.29 | 192.04 | 153.35 | 159.15 | 110.86 | ||||||||
Feb-17 | 63.97 | 60.03 | 280.97 | 166.43 | 168.58 | 157.57 | 119.87 | |||||||||
c) Calculate the number of tons and dollars of the commodity future you chose | # of tons = | Mar-17 | 66.34 | 62.08 | 290.42 | 164.46 | 190.64 | 159.15 | 133.93 | |||||||
in part b) above for the farmer to use as a hedge for her sorghum crop. | $ = | Apr-17 | 67.76 | 64.45 | 283.07 | 177.27 | 221.10 | 159.15 | 139.00 | |||||||
Points | 2 | May-17 | 68.23 | 63.50 | 273.09 | 177.27 | 230.03 | 160.72 | 131.68 | |||||||
Grade | Jun-17 | 69.33 | 66.81 | 286.75 | 188.10 | 223.20 | 159.15 | 128.31 | ||||||||
Jul-17 | 68.23 | 70.28 | 286.75 | 192.04 | 213.22 | 154.42 | 130.56 | |||||||||
d) Calculate the standard deviation of the farmer’s newly hedged position. | New StDev = | Aug-17 | 64.92 | 73.43 | 289.37 | 200.90 | 204.30 | 155.21 | 131.12 | |||||||
Points | 2 | Sep-17 | 65.23 | 66.81 | 291.48 | 207.80 | 194.32 | 151.58 | 131.68 | |||||||
Grade | Oct-17 | 62.08 | 67.91 | 293.58 | 204.84 | 186.44 | 152.37 | 131.12 | ||||||||
Nov-17 | 62.40 | 72.64 | 305.66 | 194.99 | 176.99 | 151.58 | 131.68 | |||||||||
e) Is the farmer buying long or selling short these futures to hedge her | Buy or sell? | Dec-17 | 62.24 | 76.26 | 318.78 | 192.04 | 174.89 | 159.15 | 133.93 | |||||||
sorghum crop? | Jan-18 | 56.88 | 85.56 | 319.84 | 180.22 | 161.76 | 159.15 | 131.68 | ||||||||
Points | 2 | Feb-18 | 57.20 | 83.67 | 305.66 | 143.78 | 154.93 | 147.80 | 122.12 | |||||||
Grade | Mar-18 | 61.93 | 93.44 | 298.30 | 136.89 | 175.94 | 144.81 | 120.99 | ||||||||
Apr-18 | 62.56 | 103.37 | 318.26 | 136.89 | 178.04 | 141.97 | 123.81 | |||||||||
May-18 | 62.71 | 112.66 | 346.62 | 141.81 | 180.66 | 140.39 | 119.30 | |||||||||
Jun-18 | 65.08 | 122.90 | 370.25 | 127.04 | 189.59 | 136.77 | 123.81 | |||||||||
Jul-18 | 66.18 | 134.72 | 376.55 | 155.60 | 193.27 | 137.09 | 130.00 | |||||||||
Aug-18 | 68.70 | 135.04 | 386.01 | 145.75 | 193.27 | 133.62 | 134.50 | |||||||||
Sep-18 | 75.00 | 129.68 | 434.85 | 155.60 | 197.99 | 134.09 | 146.88 | |||||||||
Oct-18 | 76.26 | 133.15 | 487.37 | 157.57 | 201.14 | 135.83 | 154.76 | |||||||||
Nov-18 | 80.20 | 136.30 | 505.22 | 160.52 | 203.77 | 146.07 | 162.63 | |||||||||
Dec-18 | 75.95 | 138.98 | 502.07 | 167.42 | 200.62 | 170.18 | 161.51 | |||||||||
Jan-19 | 72.17 | 146.54 | 476.86 | 158.55 | 186.44 | 160.72 | 157.01 | |||||||||
Feb-19 | 67.28 | 147.64 | 444.30 | 133.93 | 176.99 | 155.52 | 141.25 | |||||||||
Mar-19 | 63.19 | 140.71 | 358.70 | 130.00 | 171.73 | 156.47 | 131.68 | |||||||||
Apr-19 | 56.25 | 133.30 | 306.18 | 139.84 | 176.46 | 153.63 | 123.81 | |||||||||
May-19 | 49.95 | 119.60 | 292.00 | 142.80 | 180.14 | 157.57 | 120.43 | |||||||||
Jun-19 | 48.22 | 116.29 | 281.50 | 148.71 | 181.71 | 150.01 | 115.36 | |||||||||
Jul-19 | 47.11 | 116.13 | 286.22 | 157.57 | 178.56 | 145.12 | 114.80 | |||||||||
Aug-19 | 46.48 | 116.44 | 292.53 | 161.51 | 180.14 | 148.90 | 119.30 | |||||||||
Sep-19 | 46.64 | 108.72 | 284.65 | 164.46 | 176.46 | 148.12 | 109.74 | |||||||||
Oct-19 | 47.90 | 109.83 | 312.48 | 170.37 | 179.61 | 155.36 | 113.68 | |||||||||
Nov-19 | 46.64 | 109.98 | 316.68 | 162.49 | 175.94 | 165.45 | 112.55 | |||||||||
Dec-19 | 48.06 | 109.98 | 326.14 | 161.51 | 173.83 | 179.63 | 111.42 | |||||||||
Jan-20 | 59.40 | 109.67 | 345.57 | 172.34 | 169.63 | 167.02 | 114.24 | |||||||||
Feb-20 | 62.08 | 107.46 | 349.25 | 156.59 | 168.06 | 165.45 | 118.74 | |||||||||
Mar-20 | 58.14 | 103.84 | 322.99 | 146.74 | 170.16 | 170.18 | 109.74 | |||||||||
Apr-20 | 53.73 | 106.67 | 303.03 | 151.66 | 176.46 | 167.02 | 106.92 | |||||||||
May-20 | 47.11 | 110.61 | 297.78 | 156.59 | 180.14 | 165.45 | 102.42 | |||||||||
Jun-20 | 44.43 | 119.12 | 295.15 | 161.51 | 181.19 | 154.89 | 99.61 | |||||||||
Jul-20 | 45.85 | 118.81 | 303.55 | 170.37 | 185.39 | 152.69 | 108.05
References: Villalobos, Luenberger, Faerber, Investopedia Lecture 13 Introduction to Derivatives Part 1
Lecture Topics • Introduction to Derivative Securities • Swaps • Forwards • Examples
Derivatives • Derivatives are securities such as options and futures contracts, whose value depends on the performance of an underlying asset such as a stock or contract. • Some derivatives are classified by: – The type of underlying asset such as an equity, foreign exchange, interest rate, etc. – The relationship with the underlying asset including options, futures, and swaps. – The market which they are traded, such as an exchange, over the counter (OTC), etc. – The derivative’s complexity including plain vanilla or exotic. • Derivatives have contracts.
Why Use a Derivative? • Gain leverage, a small movement in the value of the underlying asset can cause a large change in the value of the derivative. • Making a profit (speculation) if the value of the underlying asset moves the way it is expected. • Hedging (risk reduction) by taking positions on derivative contracts that moves in an opposite direction to the main position. • Making a profit by getting a derivative position when it is not possible to get a position in the underlying asset, such as weather derivatives. – Look up weather derivative in Wikipedia and Investopedia.
Over The Counter Market • Over The Counter (OTC) derivatives are contracts that are traded (and privately negotiated) directly between two parties. • Products such as swaps, forward rate agreements, and exotic options are almost always traded in the OTC market. • The OTC market consists of banks and other highly sophisticated organizations such as hedge funds. • The OTC derivative market is the largest market for derivatives. – The notional amount is approximately US$700 trillion. – Of this total notional amount, the contracts were related to: 78% Interest Rate 0.5% Commodity 5% Credit Default Swaps (CDS) 1% Equity 9% Foreign Exchange 6.5% Other Contracts • Because OTC derivatives are not traded on an exchange, there is no central counter-party and they are a counter-party risk. • This is the market where the recent mortgage problems arose. http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm
Exchange Market • A derivatives exchange is a market where individuals trade standardized contracts that have been defined by the exchange. • Exchange Traded Derivative contracts (ETD) are traded in the specified markets. • A derivatives exchange acts as an intermediary to all related transactions; third party that can help reduce the risk. • According to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the combined turnover in the world’s derivatives exchanges totaled USD 5.3 trillion per day during 2013. • Some types of derivative instruments may also trade on traditional exchanges. • The world’s largest derivatives exchanges based on the number of transactions are the Korea Exchange, Eurex, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME Group).
Derivatives and Risk • Forward contracts, futures contracts, and options are the most common types of derivatives. • Derivatives are generally used by institutional investors to increase overall portfolio return or to hedge portfolio risk. • We will focus on the use of derivative for risk management. • The use of derivatives for risk management has attracted a lot of attention lately but it has a long history. • The feudal lords of Japan in the 1600’s used a market called Cho-ai-mai to manage the volatility in the price of rice.
Forward Contracts • A forward contract is a non-standardized contract between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a specified future time at a price agreed upon today. • The forward contract is between two parties: the buyer and the seller. – The buyer is said to be “long”, the seller is said to be “short”. – Being long or short a given amount is the position of the party. • The “forward price” is the price that applies at delivery. • The open market for immediate delivery of a commodity is called the Spot Market. • The initial contract is usually set in such a way that the initial payment for the contract is zero. • A key assumption in determining the price of the contracts is arbitrage free.
Forward Contract Example • Forward Contract is a cash market transaction in which delivery of the commodity is deferred until after a certain date specified in the contract. – The price is determined at the initial trade date. • The Contract is agreed upon at time zero and settled at time N. • Very often cash is delivered, instead of the commodity . • The amount of the payment is determined by the spot price of the commodity at time n. • A concern might be: how do we determine the forward price at the time the contract is signed? 0 1 2 3 N-1 N Cash Commodity . . . . .
Forward Contract Brewer Example • Suppose that a brewer needs 100 tons of special barley six months from now to produce a batch of specialty beer sold during the Christmas holidays. • Since the price of barley is highly unstable, the brewer wants to get a “long” position in a contract for 100 tons of barley to be delivered 6 months from today. • What should be the forward price in $/ton for this contract? • Assumptions: – The current price for barley is $200/ton. – The cost of storing a ton of barley is of $1/ton per month. – The risk free interest rates are given by the yield curve of the US treasury securities.
Forward Prices • Define F as the forward price or the price agreed upon in the contract to deliver a unit of the commodity. • Define f as the current value of the contract. • The forward price F is set such that f =0 (The value of the contract is zero when it is signed). • Suppose that at time t = 0: – Spot price for the underlying asset of a commodity is S. – A forward contract is being prepared for the delivery of the asset at time T. – What should be the price F such that f =0? • Two key observations: – The value of the forward contract is determined by the spot price of the commodity. – The value of the contract can be used to lend or borrow money at the normal market interest rates; the interest rates structure should apply.
Contract Value • An easy way to visualize the worth of a contract is to look at the payoff graphic: FSt − Profit From the perspective of the buyer (Long Position) FSt − Profit From the perspective of the seller (Short Position)
Forward Prices • Suppose that you buy in the spot market a unit of a commodity at price S and at the same time you enter in a contract to sell that unit at time T for a price F. • Then the theoretical forward price F should meet: Where d(0,T) is the discount factor calculated using the risk-free market interest rate. • Thus the theoretical forward price would be: ( )d 0,S T F= ( )d 0, SF T =
Forward Prices • The previous formula assumed that no storage costs were incurred. • If there are storage costs, then: • Where c(k) is the maintenance cost at period k. • An equivalent formulation is: ( ) ( ) ( )∑ − = += 1 0 ,,0 M k Mkd kc Md SF ( ) ( ) ( )∑ − = −= 1 0 ,0,0 M k kckdFMdS
Brewer Example • To simplify the analysis let’s assume that the yield for the 6 month US Treasury is the nominal monthly discount rate. – That is, the monthly interest rate = (0.14%/12)= 0.012% per month. – Then the forward price of barley in the contract should be: • Exercise: Suppose that brewer found a counterparty for a forward contract and the contract was signed. Two months later the spot price of the ton of barley increased to $205/ton. What is the value of the contract then? ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) ( ) 1 0 1 0 6 0, , 100 120,000 20,614.181 1 1 0.00012 1 0.00012 M k M k k c kSF d M d k M − = − = = + = × = + = + + ∑ ∑
Swaps • Swaps are financial products that are used to alter the exposure of investment portfolios, or any series of cash flows. • The most common kind of swap is an interest rate swap. • In an interest rate swap, two parties agree to exchange periodic interest payments based on a predetermined notional principal amount. • In a typical interest rate swap one party will pay a fixed interest rate, while the other party agrees to pay a floating rate. • For example, two parties may enter into an interest rate swap in which they agree to exchange interest payments on $100 million notional principal. – In this swap, one counterparty may agree to pay a fixed rate of 7%. – The other counterparty may agree to pay 3 month , London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR).
Swaps • The value of an interest rate swap changes as the level of interest rates change. • For instance, a fixed rate payer essentially has a fixed rate liability and a floating rate asset. • If interest rates fell, the fixed rate payer would still have to pay the higher fixed rate. • If the short-term rate received remained the same, the marked to market value of the fixed rate payer’s position would be negative. • Conversely, the fixed rate receiver would have a positive market to market position if the opposite occurred.
Interest Rate Swap • The most common and simplest swap is a “plain vanilla” interest rate swap. • In this swap, Party A agrees to pay Party B a predetermined, fixed rate of interest on a notional principal on specific dates for a specified period of time. • Concurrently, Party B agrees to make payments based on a floating interest rate to Party A on that same notional principal on the same specified dates for the same specified time period. • In a plain vanilla swap, the two cash flows are paid in the same currency. – The specified payment dates are called settlement dates. – The time between are called settlement periods. • Because swaps are customized contracts, interest payments may be made annually, quarterly, monthly, or at any other interval determined by the parties. • Note, you are only paying the difference at the settlement dates.
Interest Rate Swap • For example, on December 31, 2010, Company A and Company B enter into a four-year swap with the following terms: – Company A pays Company B an amount equal to 6% per annum on a notional principal of $20 million. – Company B pays Company A an amount equal to one-year LIBOR + 1% per annum on a notional principal of $20 million.
Example • LIBOR, or London Interbank Offer Rate, is the interest rate offered by London banks on deposits made by other banks in the eurodollar markets. • The market for interest rate swaps frequently uses LIBOR as the base for the floating rate. • For simplicity, let’s assume the two parties exchange payments annually on December 31, beginning in 2011 and concluding in 2015. • At the end of 2011, Company A paid Company B $20,000,000 x 6% = $1,200,000. • On December 31, 2010, one-year LIBOR was 5.33%; therefore, Company B will pay Company A $20,000,000 x (5.33% + 1%) = $1,266,000. • In a plain vanilla interest rate swap, the floating rate is usually determined at the beginning of the settlement period. • Normally, swap contracts allow for payments to be netted against each other. – Here, Company B pays $66,000, and Company A pays nothing. – At no point does the principal change hands, which is why it is referred to as a “notional” amount.
Why Use a Swap? • The motivations fall into two basic categories: commercial needs and comparative advantage. • The normal business operations of some firms lead to certain types of interest rate or currency exposures that swaps can reduce. • For example, consider a bank, which pays a floating rate of interest on deposits (i.e., liabilities) and earns a fixed rate of interest on loans (i.e., assets). – The bank could use a fixed-pay swap (pay a fixed rate and receive a floating rate) to convert its fixed-rate assets into floating-rate assets, which would match up well with its floating-rate liabilities. • Some companies have a comparative advantage in acquiring certain types of financing. • A company may acquire the financing for which it has a comparative advantage, then use a swap to convert it to the desired type of financing. • For example, consider a well-known U.S. firm that wants to expand its operations into Europe, where it is not well known. • It will likely receive more favorable financing terms in the US; by using a currency swap, the firm ends with the Euros it needs to fund its expansion. Investopedia
Assignments • Finish reading Luenberger Chapter 10. • Check out definitions for derivatives, forwards and swaps in Investopedia and Wikipedia. • Make progress on your Literature Review!
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