Financial Decision Making _ Project 1

Supply and Demand Graph

Future Supply and Demand for Crude Oil
Price per barrel (2208) Daily US demand for crude oil (in millions of barrels per day) Daily US supply of crude oil (in millions of barrels per day)
$25.00 1.0 0.5
$30.00 0.9 0.6
$35.00 0.8 0.7
$40.00 0.7 0.8
$45.00 0.6 0.9
$50.00 0.5 1.0
$55.00 0.4 1.1
Data from https://www.iea.org
Question 1:
Equilibrium:
Question 2
Question 3
Question 4
Question 5

Show your work below.

Oil Supply and Demand

Daily US demand for crude oil (in millions of barrels per day) 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 Daily US supply of crude oil (in millions of barrels per day) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1 1.1000000000000001 0 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

 

 

 

 

Oil Supply and Demand

#REF! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #REF! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

 

 

 

To complete this project step, address the following: 1. Based on the information provided from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the table on the left, examine the supply and demand graph in the space below. This information is helpful for our client ExxonMobil to know how much oil to produce. The graph shows crude oil prices per barrel and the supply and demand for the number of barrels in the united States per day. After you have examined the graph below, identify the price and quantity and price at which equilibrium exists. This information is important for the client to determine the quantity of oil to produce for profit maximization. 2. The global demand for oil changes with the changes in global economies. As economic activity increases, the global demand for oil increases. For the past several years, the global demand for oil has increased (https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/). As the global demand changes, we can observe this change graphically. What changes are expected in the short-term? To answer this question, please see https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/. Support your statements with research and references. 3. What are potential supply and demand risks in the global oil market? Support your statements with research and references. 4. Is the global oil and gas market in a monopoly, oligopoly, or competitive economic model? Why? Support your statements with research and references. Answer in the space below. Be as descriptive as possible and credit any sources you use.

Show your work below.

Show your work below.

To complete this project step, address the following: 1. Based on the information provided from the International Energy Agency (IEA) in the table on the left, examine the supply and demand graph in the space below. This information is helpful for our client ExxonMobil to know how much oil to produce. The graph shows crude oil prices per barrel and the supply and demand for the number of barrels in the united States per day. After you have examined the graph below, identify the price and quantity and price at which equilibrium exists. This information is important for the client to determine the quantity of oil to produce for profit maximization. 2. The global demand for oil changes with the changes in global economies. As economic activity increases, the global demand for oil increases. For the past several years, the global demand for oil has increased (https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/). As the global demand changes, we can observe this change graphically. What changes are expected in the short-term? To answer this question, please see https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/. Support your statements with research and references. 3. What are potential supply and demand risks in the global oil market? Support your statements with research and references. 4. Is the global oil and gas market in a monopoly, oligopoly, or competitive economic model? Why? Support your statements with research and references. 5. To what extent do you think that the current Covid-19 pandemic crisis will impact the global oil market in the long run and more specifically are there implication for Exxon Oil? Be as descriptive as possible and credit any sources you use.

Show your work below.

Profit Maximization

Profit Maximization
Base price of unleaded regular delivered in New York harbor (January 27, 2020) $1.517
Added cost to Cal:
Maryland state gasoline tax (Effective July 1, 2018) $0.353
Federal gasoline tax $0.184
Distribution & Delivery $0.042
Advertising and Marketing to ExxonMobil $0.042
Additives $0.020
Total additions $0.641
Total cost per gallon $2.158
Answer question 1 below.
Quantity Price
4000 2.658
3600 2.758
Average Average
% change % change Elasticity of Demand
Elasticity:
By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price?
By how much did profits increase or decline?
Gallons sold per day Price Revenue (price x gallons) Cost per Gallon Variable Cost (cost per unit x volume) Fixed cost per day Total Cost (Fixed + Variable) Daily Profit (revenue – all costs)
4000 $ 2.658 $ 10,632.00 $ 2.158 $ 8,632.00 $ 438.00 $ 9,070.00 $ 1,562.00
3600
Answer question 2 below.
Quantity Price
3600 2.758
4400 2.558
Average Average
% change % change Elasticity of Demand
Elasticity:
By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price?
By how much did profits increase or decline?
Gallons sold per day Price Revenue (price x gallons) Cost per Gallon Variable Cost (cost per unit x volume) Fixed cost per day Total Cost (Fixed + Variable) Daily Profit (revenue – all costs)
3600
4400
Answer question 3 below.
Quantity Price
4400 2.558
4800 2.458
Average Average
% change % change Elasticity of Demand
Elasticity:
By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price?
By how much did profits increase or decline?
Gallons sold per day Price Revenue (price x gallons) Cost per Gallon Variable Cost (cost per unit x volume) Fixed cost per day Total Cost (Fixed + Variable) Daily Profit (revenue – all costs)
4400
4800
Profit Maximization
Gallons sold per day Price Revenue (price x gallons) Cost per Gallon Variable Cost (cost per unit x volume) Fixed cost per day Total Cost (Fixed + Variable) Daily Profit (revenue – all costs)
2400 $ 3.058 $ 7,339.20 $ 2.158 $ 5,179.20 $ 438.00 $ 5,617.20 $ 1,722.00
2800 $ 2.958
3000 $ 2.908
3200 $ 2.858
3600 $ 2.758
4000 $ 2.658
4400 $ 2.558
4800 $ 2.458
5200 $ 2.358
5600 $ 2.258
6000 $ 2.158
6400 $ 2.058
6800 $ 1.958
7200 $ 1.858
7600 $ 1.758
8000 $ 1.658
8400 $ 1.558
8800 $ 1.458
9200 $ 1.358
Answer question 5 below.
Marginal Revenue Marginal Cost
Gallons sold per day Price Revenue (price x gallons) Marginal revenue Cost per gallon Variable Cost Fixed Cost Total Cost Marginal Cost
2800.0 $ 2.958000 $8,282.40 $2.158 $6,042.40 $438.00 $6,480.40
2800.1 $ 2.957975 $8,282.63 $0.2258 $2.158 $6,042.62 $438.00 $6,480.62 $0.2158
3000.0 $ 2.908000
3000.1 $ 2.907975
3200.0
3200.1
3600.0
3600.1
4000.0
4000.1
4400.0
4400.1
4800.0
4800.1
5200.0
5200.1
5600.0
5600.1
Select One
Price Elastic
Price Inelastic
Unit Price Elastic

Cal Overhaut operates an ExxonMobil gas station franchise in Fitzhugh, MD. The price of gasoline is volatile and varies greatly from day to day. The price per gallon varies based on the seasonal blend of gasoline, which is determined by clean-air requirements. Cal’s pricing options are based on the desired profit margin. Conventional Gasoline Regular Spot Prices can be found at https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/EER_EPMRU_PF4_Y35NY_DPGD.htm. Cal recently raised the price of regular gas by 1 cent per gallon from $2.658 to $2.758, and his revenue decreased and profit increased. Cal would like you to explain why that happened. Cal competes with another gas station across the street that typically sells regular gas for 2 to 3 cents per gallon less than his station. They are currently selling gasoline for $2.458 per gallon. Recently, regular gasoline for delivery in New York harbor sold for $1.517 per gallon. Cal tells you that his gas station has fixed operating costs of about $438 per day. To the right are the components that determine the cost of a gallon of regular gasoline to Cal’s business. Answer the seven questions below. You are required to use Excel for all calculations.

1. Last week, Cal sold an average of 4,000 gallons per day at an average price of $2.658 per gallon. This week, he raised the average price to $2.758 per gallon, and both revenues and profits dropped. His station is now selling an average of 3,600 gallons per day. Fixed costs of operating the gas station are $438 per day. What is the price elasticity of demand? Can the demand be characterized as price elastic, price inelastic, or neither? By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price? By how much did profits increase or decline? (Profit is revenue minus total cost.)

6. Next calculate marginal revenue, knowing that it is the difference between the revenue at the price shown and the revenue at 1/400 of a cent less. Calculate 1/400 of a cent as well as the new price. Calculate the marginal cost of selling zero point one (0.1) more gallon at each price. Prove that MC = $0.2158 Complete the table to the right.

7. What advice can you give to Cal on setting prices to maximize profit?

2. After seeing your analysis, Cal decides to lower the price of gas from $2.758 to $2.558 per gallon. After this change, the volume sold increased to 4,400 gallons per day. He asks you to measure his business gains or losses as a result of this price change. Fixed costs are $438 per day. What is the price elasticity of demand? Can the demand be characterized as price elastic, price inelastic, or neither? By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price? By how much did profits increase or decline? (Profit is revenue minus total cost.)

3. After seeing the result (from question 2), Cal decides to lower his price once again from $2.558 to $2.458 per gallon. Once again, volume sold increases and settles at 4,800 gallons per day. He is worried that any further price cut will cause the discount station across the street to also lower it price. What is the price elasticity of demand? Can the demand be characterized as price elastic, price inelastic, or neither? By how much did revenues increase or decrease as a result of the change in price? By how much did profits increase or decline? (Profit is revenue minus total cost.)

4. Cal’s son is studying in the MBA program at UMUC. He tells his father that profit maximization occurs when marginal cost (MC) = marginal revenue (MR). Cal understands that his marginal cost is the same as his variable cost, or $2.158 per gallon. Technically, marginal cost is the added cost from selling one more gallon. Cal asks you for a chart to show how profits vary with sales volume, assuming that he sells an additional 400 gallons for each 10 cent decrease in price. Also, he wants to know by how much he can lower his price without losing money. Given that you know the price and quantity of gallons sold so far, and that Cal’s cost per gallon is $2.158 per gallon and his fixed cost is $438 per day, complete the table to the right.

5. Once you calculate total profit, what is the profit maximizing price?

 
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Analyze the risks of the program from the following points of view:

Analyze the risks of the program from the following points of view:

1. Toro

2. The insurance company

3. The consumers

Write a 4–6 page analysis paper that addresses the following:

1. Why did the insurance company raise the rates so much? How would you estimate a fair insurance rate?

2. From the perspective of the consumer, how were the paybacks structured and how might they be restructured to entice you at an equal or lower cost of insurance? How does the program influence your decision to purchase?

3. What are the common decision traps which each group in point (2) is susceptible to? Develop a matrix or decision tree in order to compare the groups. How does the program impact the consumer’s “regret”? (Hint: Map the possible outcomes for the consumer)

4. From either Toro’s or the insurance company’s perspective, how would you frame your argument to achieve your desired objective?

5. Was the program successful? Why or why not?

6. If you were Dick Pollick, would you repeat the program? Assume you manage the S’No Risk program and argue your case. To what biases are you susceptible in this case?

Submit your analysis paper in Word format. Apply APA standards to citation of source

 
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BUS 687 Assignment And Exam

BUS687 Week 4 – Assignment

 

Decisions for Quarter Three and Third Quarter Quarterly Business Review (QBR)

[WLOs: 4] [CLOs: 1, 3, 4]

Part I: Decisions for Quarter Three. Prior to beginning work on the Decisions for Quarter Three, carefully review the content found in the “Suggestions for Quarter 3” pop-up screen and read any Quarter Three Internal Emails and/or Memos available through your Growing Your Business simulation. The pop-up will be available at the lower left (Blue Guidelines) of the Executive Summary Decisions Tab and the video, emails, and memos can be re-accessed through the Help section.

In your Growing Your Business simulation,

· Evaluate quantitative and qualitative techniques for business analysis and decision-making.

· Utilize tools from finance, marketing, information technology and human resources management to manage the profitability of overall business operations specific to Quarter 3.

· Create specific business tactics to achieve organizational survival and growth.]

The Decisions for Quarter Three Assignment

· Must be completed through the Growing Your Business simulation.

· Consider the following questions as you prepare your annual budget/plan (if the answer is “No” to any of the questions you may be at a Competitive Disadvantage and lack critical information to draw inference from):

· Did you

· Request/purchase the Marketing Report and Business Intelligence Dashboard (BID)?

· Utilize the 3 available role plays for Qtr.3?

· Consider in the R&D Projects?

· Must use the Role Play

· It is critical you read the details of the role play very carefully and any questions should immediately be referred to the Help Desk.

· You can gain differentiated competitive advantage through effective use of the role play.

· Some role players only provide qualitative information, while others provide the ability to negotiate with quantitatively.

· The role play is a scarce resource because of the limited number of calls per quarter.

· Must submit your Quarter Three Budget Plan.

· Must not have a short-range outlook over the credit limit.

· Periodically, as you modify inputs, use the “Model My Plan” at the lower right to see the impact of your decisions on the Financial Metrics.

· Input your financial decision and then click on the blue Submit My SRO button on the bottom right of the Quarterly Decisions screen.

· You must submit your Quarter Three Decisions prior to moving on this week’s Quarterly Business Review assignment.

 

Part II: Third Quarter Quarterly Business Review (QBR). Due by Day 7. You must submit your Quarter Three Decisions prior to moving on this week’s Quarterly Business Review assignment. Prior to beginning work on the Third Quarter Quarterly Business Review, review the following content from the Growing Your Business Simulation, the Suggestions for Quarter Three Decisions pop-up and your Business Intelligence Dashboard. The graphics in the dashboard should provide you with the trends (that is the time series data is growing) in data to critically analyze your competitors for the first two quarters their positions for the longer term.

With the completion of Quarter Three, you are responsible for completing your third Quarterly Business Review (QBR).  This is a qualitative and quantitative summary of your competitive performance for Quarter Three. Business reviews (or Operational Reviews) are a routine part of annual corporate activities and are very cross-functional in nature.  A major component of a QBR is around meeting commitments that are embedded in your budgetary planning process. Meeting commitments are seen explicitly in your Variances. These learnings are designed to enhance your performance in future Quarters.

In your Growing Your Business simulation,

· Evaluate quantitative and qualitative techniques for business analysis and decision-making.

· Assess the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats associated with the corporate strategy & policy process.

· Utilize tools from finance, marketing, information technology and human resources management to manage the profitability of overall business operations.

· Create specific business tactics to achieve organizational survival and growth.

The Third Quarter Quarterly Business Review Assignment

· Must be completed through the Growing Your Business simulation.

· After logging in, go to the Quarterly Decisions tab on the top right of the simulation site and then click on the Executive Summary tab to access the Quarterly Business Review section.

· Must be completed and submitted using all of the data provided including

· Quarterly Pre-Tax Net Income relative to Plan for the Quarter

· Review the Pre-Tax Net Income Chart Explanation Preview the document document

· Cash Flow walk

· Pre-tax Net Income in Plan

· Must show that Hisco is on track to Meet/Exceed its Annual Net Income Commitment through an evaluation of both quantitative and qualitative techniques for business analysis and decision making.

· Must create specific business tactics to achieve organizational survival and growth.

· After completing, check the box and submit in the lower right.

· After completing the simulation, students must save the provided pdf from the pdf found within the Executive Summary tab of the Quarterly Decisions page and submit it through Waypoint. Verify your submission was successful.

· To access the PDF for submission, click on the QTRLY Decisions tab from the simulation home page and then go to the Executive Summary tab. Within the Executive Summary page, you will find a Download link associated with each quarterly decision you completed.

· Remember, you will be receiving feedback on your QBR each quarter. You should review the feedback prior to submitting next quarter’s decisions, as there may be some critical learning that can help your performance in the next quarter.

· Must use scholarly sources in addition to the course text.

· The Scholarly, Peer-Reviewed, and Other Credible Sources (Links to an external site.) table offers additional guidance on appropriate source types. If you have questions about whether a specific source is appropriate for this assignment, please contact your instructor. Your instructor has the final say about the appropriateness of a specific source for a particular assignment.

· Must document any information used from sources in APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center’s Citing Within Your Paper (Links to an external site.) guide.

· Must include a separate references page that is formatted according to APA style as outlined in the Ashford Writing Center. See the Formatting Your References List (Links to an external site.) resource in the Ashford Writing Center for specifications.

 
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Quantitative Decision Making – Lab1

Micromedia offers computer training seminars on a variety of topics. In the seminars each student works at a personal computer provided by Micromedia, practicing the particular activity that the instructor is presenting. Micromedia is currently planning a two-day seminar on the use of Microsoft Excel in statistical analysis. The projected fee for the seminar is only $600 per student. The cost for the conference room, instructor compensation, lab assistants, and promotion is $9600 for two days to be incurred by Micromedia. In addition, Micromedia rents computers for its seminars at a cost of $60 per computer per day. Each student uses one computer. So, the cost of renting a computer, incurred by Micromedia, will be $120 per student. You must find the breakeven point, the point when the cost is equal to revenue for Micromedia. In addition, you must resolve an additional situation of determining the number of students needed to be enrolled in order to make a profit of $9600.

When done, submit the report in Microsoft Word (no other format will be accepted) format using the Sample Report file (attached below in the attachements) as a template by the due date.

Please upload the Excel spreadsheet too.

Tasks to be completed:

1. Define the goal seeking problem to be solved in your own words in detail.

2. Develop a mathematical model for the total profit if x represents the number of students enrolled in the seminar.

3. Develop a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet to solve your problem.

4. Run the Excel’s Goal Seek tool to determine the breakeven point. Capture and include the part of the screen to explain your results.

5. Run the Excel’s Goal Seek tool to determine the number of students need to be enrolled in order to make a profit of $9600. Capture and include the part of the screen to explain your results.

6. Upload your Excel spreadsheet

4

 

DEPARTMENT OF TECHNOLOGY AND WORKFORCE LEARNING

ETECH 889-XX Quantitative Decision Making in Industry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Using Excel’s Goal Seek Tool

Report 1

 

 

By

Your Name

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Date

 

(1) Problem Definition:

Lays Chips is in the business of making chips. The one-time setup cost of the required machinery is $3,000. The variable labor and material cost of producing a chip is $2. The selling price of each chip is $5. It is assumed that all the chips that produced will be solved. We have to determine the breakeven point, the number of chips to be produced that will generate the revenue equaling the total cost. Also, we have to determine the number of chips to be produced for a desired profit.

(2) Mathematical Model:

If the cost(cp) is a function of chips produced, then the cost-volume model for producing cp chips can be expressed by the equation:

cost(cp) = 3000 + 2*cp

If revenue(cp) represents a function of chips sold then the total revenue model can be represented by the equation:

revenue(cp) = 5*cp

Model for profit, if all the chips produced are sold, can be given by (cp stands for chips produced) the equation:

profit(cp) = revenue(cp) – cost(cp) = (5*cp) – (3000 + 2*cp) = –3000 + 3*cp

(3) Microsoft Excel Solution:

The Excel solution developed is given by the following screen captures:

 

(4) Excel’s Goal Seek:

Results from Excel’s Goal Seek Tool show that the breakeven point is achieved when 1000 chips are produced, as evident from the following screen captures:

  

(5) Excel’s Goal Seek:

Results from Excel’s Goal Seek Tool show that the profit of $1000 is achieved when 1333 chips are produced, as evident from the following screen captures:

  

Results from Excel’s Goal Seek Tool show that the profit of $5000 is achieved when 2667 chips are produced, as evident from the following screen captures:

  

Conclusion and Recommendations:

The breakeven point is met when 1000 chips are produced and sold.

A profit of $1000 is achieved when 1333 chips are produced and sold.

A profit of $5000 is achieved when 2667 chips are produced and sold.

(6) Please upload your spreadsheet file too.

 
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