Use the data in Solved Problem 5.1 to examine what happens to the decision if Sarah King can increase all of Design B yields from 59,000 to 64,000 by applying an expensive phosphorus to the screen at an added manufacturing cost of $250,000. Prepare the modified decision tree. What are the payoffs, and which branch has the greatest EMV?

Problem 5.1

Prepare a product-by-value analysis for the following products, and given the position in its life cycle, identify the issues likely to confront the operations manager and his or her possible actions. Product Alpha has annual sales of 1,000 units and a contribution of $2,500; it is in the introductory stage. Product Bravo has annual sales of 1,500 units and a contribution of $3,000; it is in the growth stage. Product Charlie has annual sales of 3,500 units and a contribution of $1,750; it is in the decline stage.

The product design group of Iyengar Electric Supplies, Inc., has determined that it needs to design a new series of switches. It must decide on one of three design strategies. The market forecast is for 200,000 units. The better and more sophisticated the design strategy and the more time spent on value engineering, the less will be the variable cost. The chief of engineering design, Dr. W. L. Berry, has decided that the following costs are a good estimate of the initial and variable costs connected with each of the three strategies:

a) Low-tech: A low-technology, low-cost process consisting of hiring several new junior engineers. This option has a fixed cost of $45,000 and variable-cost probabilities of .3 for $.55 each, .4 for $.50, and .3 for $.45.

b) Subcontract: A medium-cost approach using a good outside design staff. This approach would have a fixed cost of $65,000 and variable-cost probabilities of .7 of $.45, .2 of $.40, and .1 of $.35.

c) High-tech: A high-technology approach using the very best of the inside staff and the latest computer-aided design technology. This approach has a fixed cost of $75,000 and variable-cost probabilities of .9 of $.40 and .1 of $.35.

What is the best decision based on an expected monetary value (EMV) criterion? (Note: We want the lowest EMV, as we are dealing with costs in this problem.)