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Refer to the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing illustration in Example 7. Using  = .2 and  = .4, we forecast sales for 9 months, showing the detailed calculations for months 2 and 3. In Solved Problem 4.2, we continued the process for month 4.

In this problem, show your calculations for months 5 and 6 for t tand t.

Problem 4.2

a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?

b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.

c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.

d) As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results?

 
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Refer to Problem 4.21. Complete the trendadjusted exponential-smoothing forecast computations for periods 7, 8, and 9. Confirm that your numbers for tt , and t match those in Table 4.2.

Problem 4.21

Refer to the trend-adjusted exponential smoothing illustration in Example 7. Using  = .2 and  = .4, we forecast sales for 9 months, showing the detailed calculations for months 2 and 3. In Solved Problem 4.2, we continued the process for month 4.

In this problem, show your calculations for months 5 and 6 for t tand t.

Problem 4.2

a) Plot the above data on a graph. Do you observe any trend, cycles, or random variations?

b) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average. Plot your forecast on the same graph as the original data.

c) Starting in year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3-year moving average with weights of .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year. Plot this forecast on the same graph.

d) As you compare forecasts with the original data, which seems to give the better results?

Example 7

Table 4.2

 
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(a) Define the demographic transition’. Describe how birth rates, death rates and population growth rates typically differ between the stages of the ‘demographic transition’.

(b) Write down the formula for the Net Reproduction Rate, delining carefully all the symbols you use. State how, under specified conditions, the value of the Net Reproduction Rate is related to population growth. Explain why for many of the countries in which the value of the net reproduction rate for 2015-20 was below 1 (daughter per woman the population growth rate for 2015-20 was positive.

(d) Describe how the population growth rates for Victoria and the Northern Territory and the components of these population growth rates changed between 2019 and 2020

Describe how the numbers of representatives of Australia’s states in the Federal House of Representatives and the numbers of representatives of Australia’s states in the Federal Senate are related to the spatial distribution of population. How does the ratio of state’s total population to state’s number of representatives in the Federal Senate vary between Australia’s states?

Define the term ‘excess deaths in relation to the COVID-19 pandemic. Give three examples of how the COVID-19 pandemic could affect the numbers of deaths from causes of death other than COVID-19.

(e) S 5 Write down the formulae for the Crude Death Rate and the Directly Standardised Death Rate, clearly specifying all the symbols you use. Explain why for 2018 the Crude Death Rate of the Indigenous population of New South Wales was lower than the Crude Death Rate of the Non-Indigenous population of New South Wales, whilst the Directly Standardised Death Rate of the Indigenous population of New South Wales was higher than the Directly Standardised Death Rate of the Non-Indigenous population of New South Wales. please turn over for more questions)
 
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In 300 words, and in the context of Revenue Models in the Digital World, discuss the role of the following mechanisms:

Affiliate marketing Subscription Freemium . . ? Provide example for each model

Note: do not use the examples in the slides materials Question 2 requirements:

? Describe, in 100 words, the organizational functional area. ? In 300 words, provide a detailed example about two of the functional area, and how do they operate using is inside each one of them? and how they utilize the IS to pass and process the daily transactions between them?

> At which organizational decision-making level the functional area manager is actively operating in it?
 
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