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Kelle Carpet and Trim installs carpet in commercial offices. Peter Kelle has been very concerned with the amount of time it took to complete several recent jobs. Some of his workers are very unreliable. A list of activities and their optimistic completion time, the most likely completion time, and the pessimistic completion time (all in days) for a new contract are given in the following table:

a) Determine the expected completion time and variance for each activity.

b) Determine the total project completion time and the critical path for the project.

c) Determine ES, EF, LS, LF, and slack for each activity.

d) What is the probability that Kelle Carpet and Trim willfinish the project in 40 days or less?

 
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Four Squares Productions, a firm hired to coordinate the release of the movie Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (starring Johnny Depp), identified 16 activities to be completed before the release of the film.

a) How many weeks in advance of the film release should Four Squares have started its marketing campaign? What is the critical path? The tasks (in time units of weeks) are as follows:

b) What is the probability of completing the marketing campaign in the time (in weeks) noted in part a?

c) If activities I and J were not necessary, what impact would this have on the critical path and the number of weeks needed to complete the marketing campaign?

 
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Development of Version 2.0 of a particular accounting software product is being considered by Jose Noguera’s technology firm in Baton Rouge. The activities necessary for the completion of this project are listed in the following table:

a) What is the project completion date?

b) What is the total cost required for completing this project on normal time?

c) If you wish to reduce the time required to complete this project by 1 week, which activity should be crashed, and how much will this increase the total cost?

d) What is the maximum time that can be crashed? How much would costs increase?

 
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CEO John Goodale, at Southern Illinois Power and Light, has been collecting data on demand for electric power in its western subregion for only the past 2 years. Those data are shown in the table below.

To plan for expansion and to arrange to borrow power from neighboring utilities during peak periods, Goodale needs to be able to forecast demand for each month next year. However, the standard forecasting models discussed in this chapter will not fit the data observed for the 2 years.

a) What are the weaknesses of the standard forecasting techniques as applied to this set of data?

b) Because known models are not appropriate here, propose your own approach to forecasting. Although there is no perfect solution to tackling data such as these (in other words, there are no 100% right or wrong answers), justify your model.

c) Forecast demand for each month next year using the model you propose.

 
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