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We discussed Probability Topics is last week’s lecture which is a measure that is
associated with how certain we are of outcomes of a particular experiment or activity.
Please select one of the following companies we discussed in our recorded lecture
which include:

1. Amazon
2. Gucci (clothing line)
3. BP (Petroleum company)
4. Walmart
5. Florida Oranges (Ag commodity)
6. CSX Railroad

Once you select a company please do an analysis of its company’s structure within the
following:

?Scenario Analysis—scenario analysis uses probability distributions to create
several, theoretically distinct possibilities for the outcome of a particular course of
action or future event. Does your company have a projected scenario analysis or
future plan? How is your company preparing for the future? Hint: also referred to
scenario planning within the industry circles.

? Sales Forecasting— remember a scenario analysis uses probability
distributions to create several, theoretically distinct possibilities for the outcome
of a particular course of action or future event. Forecasts are about the future. It’s
hard to overstate how important it is for a company to produce an accurate sales
forecast. Privately-held companies gain confidence in their business when
leaders are able to trust forecasts. For publicly-traded companies, accurate
forecasts confer credibility in the market—does your company perform some kind
of projected forecast? How do your company “predict” the future?

? Risk Evaluation—predicting future sales levels, probability distribution can be a
useful tool for evaluating risk. Risk evaluation is also the process of comparing
an estimated risk against given risk criteria to determine the significance of the
risk. Risk control – actions implementing risk evaluation decisions. Note: Risk
control can involve monitoring, re-evaluation, and compliance with decisions.
How does your company measure rick?