Operations Forecasting

Select a business operations dataset from the internet or other sources which can be used for forecasting in the University Library.

Develop a minimum of three quantitative forecasts using Microsoft® Excel®.

Compare and contrast each quantitative forecast you develop.
Choose the one forecast you determine would be the best for the firm and be prepared to explain why you chose this.
Evaluate the impact this forecast would have on the firm from a financial metrics standpoint.

Develop a 700-word report in which you describe your forecasting project including details on all the assignment steps.

Format your assignment consistent with APA guidelines.

I have attached two examples of forecasting. (do not use this data)

Explanation:

a. to e.

					Single Exponential Smoothing	Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Month (t)	Demand	Three-Month Moving Average	Absolute Deviation	Three-Month Weighted Moving Average	Absolute Deviation	Ft	Absolute Deviation	Ft	Tt	FITt	Absolute Deviation
1	61					66.000		65.000	1.700	66.700
2	64					64.500		64.990	1.358	66.348
3	67					64.350		65.644	1.217	66.861
4	66	64.000	2.000	64.6	1.400	65.145	0.855	66.903	1.225	68.128	2.128
5	71	65.667	5.333	66.0	5.000	65.402	5.598	67.490	1.098	68.587	2.413
6	70	68.000	2.000	68.2	1.800	67.081	2.919	69.311	1.243	70.554	0.554
7	73	69.000	4.000	69.6	3.400	67.957	5.043	70.388	1.209	71.597	1.403
8	74	71.333	2.667	71.4	2.600	69.470	4.530	72.018	1.294	73.311	0.689
9	74	72.333	1.667	72.8	1.200	70.829	3.171	73.518	1.335	74.853	0.853
10	83	73.667	9.333	73.8	9.200	71.780	11.220	74.597	1.284	75.881	7.119
11	84	77.000	7.000	77.6	6.400	75.146	8.854	78.016	1.711	79.727	4.273
12	86	80.333	5.667	81.6	4.400	77.802	8.198	81.009	1.967	82.976	3.024

MAD			4.407		3.933		5.599				2.495

Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend forecast component appears to be the best method.