Marketing Homework (Needs Marketing Major’s Tutor)
Due Mon, 2/16 (11:59AM).  Submit your Montreaux demand forecast and sensitivity analysis (Answer Q1, Parts A and B from “Session 12â€).  Please submit BOTH the .xls file and PDF of the spreadsheet.
- Question #1 for Individual Assignment (submit Parts A and B):
- Part AÂ – Using the forecast model for the healthy dark chocolate product with fruit tested in the BASES II test in August 2012, what is your forecast of the demand for the chocolate product?
- Part BÂ – Conduct a sensitivity analysis by using the facts provided regarding consumer awareness, ACV and repeat rates for mediocre, average, and excellent products.
- Hints:
- The necessary data is contained in Exhibit 5
- Refer to the Excel spreadsheet supplement from Digital Coursepack
-
For Part A, download the spreadsheet and fill out the model to get the baseline case (I believe the tab is called “Student Template”). The goal of Part B (sensitivity analysis) is to analyze how adjustments to the marketing plan impact the baseline forecast at the three levels of repurchase — e.g., what would the forecast look like if you were to assume low-support (awareness), low-ACV and mediocre repeat rate? Med-support, med-ACV and mediocre repeat rate? And so on. Hint – there are 9 forecasts in total.
Title
Montreaux Chocolate Company USA: Are Americans Ready for Healthy Dark Chocolate? Student Spreadsheet Copyright © 2013 Harvard Business School Publishing Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1 – Montreaux Chocolate USA Volume Projections ($000’s) 2013 2014 2015 Total U.S. Market Size $18,378 $18,745 $19,120 Montreaux Chocolate USA $51.0 $76.0 $115.0 Montreaux U.S. Market Share 0.28% 0.41% 0.60% Exhibit 4
Exhibit 4 – Attribute Ratings for the 5 oz. Stand-up Pouch with Healthy Messaging Concept Product Attribute How much would you agree with the statements made about this product? (% Agree or Strongly Agree) Would be better for me than other chocolates 87 Would be high quality 85 Would taste great 84 Would come in varieties I like 78 Would be a good way in indulge myself 74 Would be good for any time of the day 61 Would taste better than other dark chocolates 54 Would be good for everyday use 42 Would be an all-natural snack option 38 Would be a good value 33 Exhibit 5
Exhibit 5 – Montreaux Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 Trial Purchase Rate Repeat Rate by Product Definitely would buy 23% Mediocre Product 28% Probably would buy 40% Average Product 33% U.S. Households (MM) 120 Excellent Product 38% Penetration* 92% Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) 4 Marketing Plan Adjustments Consumer Awareness ACV Low Support 14% Low 60% Medium Support 17% Medium 65% High Support 20% High 79% Pricing $4.49 Retail Margin 35% *Assumed penetration of chocolate users. NOTE: Acceptable hurdle rate is $30MM. All numbers are fictictious and used for illustrative purposes. Student Template
Student Template Source Definitely would buy Exhibit 5 % of “Definites” who actually buy 80% “Definite” Purchases 0% Probably would buy Exhibit 5 % of “Probables” who actually buy 30% “Probable” Purchases 0% Trial Rate (“Definite” + “Probable”) 0% Households (MM) Exhibit 5 Penetration, % of households Exhibit 5 Awareness Exhibit 5 ACV Exhibit 5 Total Trial Households (MM) 0.00 % of households repurchasing Exhibit 5 Repeat purchase occasions Exhibit 5 Total Repeat Purchases (MM) -0 Total Purchases (Trial + Repeat) (MM) – 0 Retail selling price Exhibit 5 Retail sales value ($MM) Retailer gross margin Case text Mondreaux Sales Volume ($MM) $0.0M Title
Montreaux Chocolate Company USA: Are Americans Ready for Healthy Dark Chocolate? Student Spreadsheet Copyright © 2013 Harvard Business School Publishing Exhibit 1
Exhibit 1 – Montreaux Chocolate USA Volume Projections ($000’s) 2013 2014 2015 Total U.S. Market Size $18,378 $18,745 $19,120 Montreaux Chocolate USA $51.0 $76.0 $115.0 Montreaux U.S. Market Share 0.28% 0.41% 0.60% Exhibit 4
Exhibit 4 – Attribute Ratings for the 5 oz. Stand-up Pouch with Healthy Messaging Concept Product Attribute How much would you agree with the statements made about this product? (% Agree or Strongly Agree) Would be better for me than other chocolates 87 Would be high quality 85 Would taste great 84 Would come in varieties I like 78 Would be a good way in indulge myself 74 Would be good for any time of the day 61 Would taste better than other dark chocolates 54 Would be good for everyday use 42 Would be an all-natural snack option 38 Would be a good value 33 Exhibit 5
Exhibit 5 – Montreaux Purchase Volume Estimate, Year 1 Trial Purchase Rate Repeat Rate by Product Definitely would buy 23% Mediocre Product 28% Probably would buy 40% Average Product 33% U.S. Households (MM) 120 Excellent Product 38% Penetration* 92% Repeat Purchase Occasions (units) 4 Marketing Plan Adjustments Consumer Awareness ACV Low Support 14% Low 60% Medium Support 17% Medium 65% High Support 20% High 79% Pricing $4.49 Retail Margin 35% *Assumed penetration of chocolate users. NOTE: Acceptable hurdle rate is $30MM. All numbers are fictictious and used for illustrative purposes. Student Template
Student Template Source Definitely would buy Exhibit 5 % of “Definites” who actually buy 80% “Definite” Purchases 0% Probably would buy Exhibit 5 % of “Probables” who actually buy 30% “Probable” Purchases 0% Trial Rate (“Definite” + “Probable”) 0% Households (MM) Exhibit 5 Penetration, % of households Exhibit 5 Awareness Exhibit 5 ACV Exhibit 5 Total Trial Households (MM) 0.00 % of households repurchasing Exhibit 5 Repeat purchase occasions Exhibit 5 Total Repeat Purchases (MM) -0 Total Purchases (Trial + Repeat) (MM) – 0 Retail selling price Exhibit 5 Retail sales value ($MM) Retailer gross margin Case text Mondreaux Sales Volume ($MM) $0.0M
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